Horse Racing Betting in 2023: Five Key Differentiators geegeez co.uk

Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.

They’re off in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

• I doubt he’ll iron that out before March but, if he could take off and land adroitly throughout, he’d be interesting for all that it’s (very) hard to forget his errant transit in the 2020 Supreme.
• Here you will find our Lucky 15 which includes our Notebook runners (now on oddschecker), the Daily Eye Catcher and Value Tip (also on oddschecker).
• Thus ‘No Foto Needed’ was born –  a way for him to supply advice via this specially curated SBC run service, without having to put his real name to its operation.
• The Mullins third string is an unbeaten-in-one ‘could be anything’ type called Bring On The Night.
• Jarraaf is improving through the ranks and has impressed twice over this track and trip.

Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.

International Races

• Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes.
• By consistently following valuable tips, you not only stay informed but also increase your chances of success on a daily basis.
• But it was good to see that he is of the level to run with the best.
• Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days.
• Again, these angles play especially well on the all-weather, because most synthetic tracks in UK and Ireland race on turning tracks, many of them from the minimum trip up.
• Elliott also saddles Romeo Coolio, an impressive debut winner at Fairyhouse who looks an exciting prospect for staying hurdles next season.

Another thing to consider is that new sports betting sites are more likely to offer generous offers to new punters (read our BlackType review or the Karamba sports review for more details). IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at 4.50. Recently purchased by top owner J P McManus, she can extend her winning sequence. The daughter of Shantou displayed her immense ability with a smart success at Punchestown in January, giving a pair of well-touted geldings weight and scoring with plenty in hand.

Relegate makes it nine Champion Bumper wins for Willie Mullins

Elliott’s team, meanwhile, has been in top form despite the challenging circumstances. Who knows what impact the loss of key horses and the absence of the hitherto licence holder (and the new named holder) will have? Likely some, but probably not a huge amount is my best guess. Elliott has had three phenomenal CheltFests in the past four years, 2019 being a sharp reminder of the perils of blind backing a yard; and he’s had at least three winners in each of those years – 27 in all during that time. The trouble with highly rated winners of the Gold Cup is that their rating is testament to their ability and that, naturally, is not missed by the market.

Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1 Micro System

This is perhaps the simplest of the five differentiators. We’re looking for races where all runners are exposed; that is, they’re experienced and have shown pretty much all they have to the handicapper already. In such races, we are not expecting a progressive horse to leap forward seven to ten pounds; rather, we expect that the horse best suited to conditions will have a great chance…

• Perhaps the most progressive is BLESS THE WINGS and he is a tentative choice.
• The five-year-old had made it to the track just twice since his fast-finishing fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes two years ago, but he served notice there may still be a big prize on his horizon with a pleasing performance.
• Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity.
• As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls.
• It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting.

Horse racing in the UK

William Buick winners have been with Bohemian Melody (2011) and Jamaican Bolt (2014). Silvestre De Sousa winners have been with Thunderball (2012) and Aberama Gold (2020). As with all the reports, you can set parameters at the top to filter the day’s qualifiers. And there are various other filtering options – for instance, I’m looking at the Course 5 Year Form view here, which tells me Harry Fry has run two handicap debutants at Plumpton since 19th December 2017.

Racing Results for Monday 22 April 2024

Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.

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These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around. Philip Hobbs is 0 from 17 in this type of race in the review period, and has only had one horse placed. That was Fair Along, third in the 2008 Champion Chase, and Hobbs tends to fare better at Aintree, though he’s had a wretched season blighted – one suspects – by a touch of the virus. Just one of the 94 runners sporting blinkers or cheekpieces won – Our Vic in the 2008 Ryanair – and such horses’ place strikerate is poor, too.

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More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he’d saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter. 10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival. 13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out. All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing). The only slight reservation I can think of – and it is really slight – is that he’s not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he’s been well on top each time, we don’t know how he hurdles under pressure. By honing discipline and patience in your wagering strategies, you not only enhance your chances of long-lasting success but also develop a deeper understanding of the intricate world of horse racing.

• A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap.
• This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career.
• Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.
• Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going.
• Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip.

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We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.

Monday 22 April’s Horse Racing Results

Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good. Grosvenor Sport is offering new customers the chance to get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet £10 on horse racing. Henry Dwyer’s charge had finished fourth on her British debut in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month, but she clearly enjoyed the faster ground at Royal Ascot to become Australia’s sixth winner of this race by a length. “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.

He ran a solid seventh in this contest last term, challenging down the inner from an unpromising position; keeping-on well enough behind some talented individuals. Dropped 2lb in the weights this time around, there could be some each-way mileage in his big price, returning to this circuit. A race which is likely to run at a furious gallop, with number contenders for this valuable prize for the Hunter Chasers and amateur jockeys. It is run over the exact same Gold Cup distance, which offers an interesting angle for viewers.

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

And, of course, that’s absolutely fine because – remember – the number one takeaway from these million words is, Choose Your Battles. Play where you know most, and where you’re as comfortable as possible with what you don’t know. Like which trainers, and which of their horses, might leap forward on handicap bow. Even at relatively short odds of 7/2, there may be a losing run of 27 or 28 bets in a 1000 race sample; so we have to be set up, emotionally and financially, to deal with that. Betting is fun, perhaps more so on horses than most other sports because of the speed with which the result is known; that rapid production of endorphins induced by the short duration of a race compared with, say, a football match. This doesn’t look to be the deepest Novice hurdle so UNIVERSAL DAVE may well be able to shoulder a penalty and land a second career success.

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Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.

• Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces…
• By exploring tips from a range of experts, punters can gain a well-rounded view of the racing landscape, maximising their chances of selecting winning bets.
• Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017).
• Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there’s a winner or three in its midst.
• Only five of the 102 horses sent off shorter than 9/1 prevailed, for a 66 point loss at SP (60 points at BSP).
• The leading trainer in the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap over the last 13 renewals is Kevin Ryan who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Bielsa (2019) and Magical Spirit (2021).
• The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f.

Energumene – Marsh Novices’ Chase – 2/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.

Urgent hunt for missing boy, 14, last seen at train station five days ago

She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.

If you can find an in-form horse, with strong recent form figures, a high Racing Post Rating and reasonably generous odds you could be on to a winner, so don’t be afraid to get involved. By doing those simple steps you’ve already started to read the form, albeit at its simplest. You already know that the better the form figures the better the chance and the shorter the likely odds.

Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.

Back From Dubai had some Class 6 questions to answer but this 0-55 required very little winning. 9/4 was hardly rock n’ roll but he was against quantity rather than quality opposition, even allowing for the grade. Another deep race with plenty of experienced campaigners making their seasonal returns. Whilst the race is open on paper, it may be worth chancing WINDSOR AVENUE.

He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue – this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.

However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option. 20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there’s been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo’s so I’m not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.

We now only have eight winners, from 291 runners, but an SP profit of 40 points. At BSP, for the reason highlighted above, it becomes a juicy 341 points. Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).

LH – It’s a horse race (“thankfully”), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.

Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1/2 (1.5), get £50 in Free Bet Builders. We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Ayr Gold Cup Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst Bolts Up Daily also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. Sectional times can tell us how fast horses finished their races; importantly, they also tell us the overall race context in which the finishing time was achieved.